AUDUSD bears return as rally loses steam

The Australian dollar has been on the front-foot in the wake of the RBA meeting minutes, with markets reacting to their data dependent outlook. However, that risk-on rebound for AUDUSD may be short-lived given the ongoing concern within markets that have benefitted the US dollar. Yesterday’s retail sales reading brought continued confidence of strong consumption in the US, raising the likeliness of further tightening from the Federal Reserve. As such, it looks like a strong possibility that we will see AUDUSD reverse lower once again in the coming days, continuing the downtrend that has dominated H2 thus far. A push through 0.645 resistance ends that bearish trend, with a reversal lower looking a distinct possibility until that level is broken. From a Fibonacci perspective, price has started to weaken from the 61.8% level. However, it is possible that a near-term rise into 76.4% occurs before the bears come back into play. For greater confidence, a move below the near-term intraday swing-low (currently 0.635) would signal the likely end to this current short-term rally.