The U.S NFP data: Can the jobs report open the door for September tapering?

Posted by Lulama Msungwa -
Scope Markets

Key points

  • The fed set to announce tapering
  • Delta variant set to slow down the hiring process
  • NFP data exp; 680K, cons; 750K, Pre: 943K
  • Technical outlook

What we can expect from U.S NFP data ?

The U.S NFP data is scheduled for tomorrow will be a key focus for investors as we get into summer as it will provide guidance for the tapering timing expected for September.

As we noted on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell spoke cautiously in his highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, warning of the risks of premature policy tightening and reiterating that there is still “plenty of room to maximize employment in the US. economy of the United States “. Most traders believe that this speech may prevent the Fed from announcing the cut at the September meeting, allowing the market to pay attention to the November Fed policy meeting, which is the full report from the three nonfarm payrolls (NFP data) going forward.

The Federal Reserve is about to announce and begin to scale back its quantitative easing asset purchase program If nonfarm employment(NFP data) is strong (for example, 650,000 or more), this can help drive momentum for ideas announced on September 22 and implemented in October. If it’s soft (for example, 450k or less), which may mean officials want to see another month of data before choose to announce on November 3 and implement it in December. Either way, Fed officials said the US economy is resilient and will be able to withstand the latest wave of Covid cases, so it is likely to be reduced this year. More officials also warned that inflation will last longer and financial stability risks associated with rising asset prices.

After releasing the two 900,000+ figures in June and July, we forecast the number of employed people to be 680,000, while the general forecast is 750,000. The resurgence of Covid Delta variants has clearly affected the travel and hotel industries, as consumer psychology has gradually generated a certain degree of caution, which may lead to a slight decline in momentum. However, the underlying economic demand is strong, and companies are still worried about the lack of suitable workers, so this provides a solid foundation. Given the competition for employees with the required skills, we expect the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1% and wages to further rise to 4.1% year on year.

Technical outlook of gold

Technical outlook of Gold, 1D , Sep 2, 2021 made by LulamaFX from ScopeMarkets

The closely watched NFP data may provide a clear picture as to when the Fed may start tapering. This will play a very key role in determining the next direction for the Gold price as the journey to $1,900 is still held on by the resistance level at $1,832.

The prudent approach is to wait for a continuous breakthrough of the daily resistance zone (near $1,832) and then prepare for further appreciation. Momentum may push XAU/USD to a key obstacle near the $1,875 area. If cleared decisively, it will re-establish a bullish breakout and pave the way for further gains. Gold may accelerate the next relevant resistance level, which is the kinetic energy near the $1,900 area.


Research & Markets Analyst

Scope Markets

Share this article:

Disclaimer: This material is a marketing communication and shall not in any case be construed as an investment advice, investment recommendation or presentation of an investment strategy. The marketing communication is prepared without taking into consideration the individual investors personal circumstances, investment experience or current financial situation. Any information contained therein in regardsto past performance or future forecasts does not constitute a reliable indicator of future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Scope Markets shall not accept any responsibility for any losses of investors due to the use and the content of the abovementioned information. Please note that forex trading and trading in other leveraged products involves a significant level of risk and is not suitable for all investors.

Payment Methods

Scope Markets
Scope Markets
Scope Markets
Scope Markets


Scope Markets
Scope Markets
Scope Markets
Scope Markets

Scope Markets offers institutional and retail trading services to businesses and traders worldwide. Our top management team has more than 20 years of experience in the industry, and we are proud of the solid partnerships we built over the years. Whether it's a business or individual, Scope Markets has a wide range of trading solutions that are compliant, flexible, cost-efficient, innovative, and place the client first.

Contact Us

Registered address:
6160, Park Avenue, Buttonwood Bay, Lower Flat Office Space Front, Belize City, Belize


+44 2030 516959

Risk Warning

Please note that forex trading and trading in other leveraged products involves a significant level of risk and is not suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments may result in losses as well as profits and your losses can be greater than your initial invested capital. Before undertaking any such transactions, you should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Please read and ensure you fully understand our Risk Disclosure.

Legal Information

RS Global Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Belize ("FSC") under the Securities Industry Act 2021 with registration number 000274/2.

Restricted Regions

Scope Markets does not offer its services to the residents of certain jurisdictions. Please read carefully our Restricted Countries document.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

© Copyright 2022 Scope Markets. All Rights Reserved.