Week Ahead 22 – 26/03: European Council Meeting in Focus
Table of Content
Key points
- The markets are relatively busy in the week ahead, with Central Bank speakers expected to give speeches and the most awaited European Council meeting
- U.S Fed will have a busy week, and key economic events will have an impact on the markets
- Technical outlook
US dollar
It’s fairly a busy week ahead with the most anticipated European Council meeting on Thursday and Friday expected to influence the Euro markets movement. First, the U.S markets are set to take another busy week ahead, with Fed scheduled to speak for 3-days after Fed chair Powell signalled to keep the interest rate near zero until 2023, even after the policymakers boosted the U.S economic outlook and inflation.
The Fed chair will set the tone of the market movement on Monday with a speech set on Monday on the innovative digital age and the U.S Central Bank.
On Tuesday, the Fed will testify before the House of representative’s service committee. On Wednesday, the Fed chair Powell will give his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on the coronavirus relief and Economic security act the Fed spoke about on Thursday during the monetary policy statement.
On Wednesday, the U.S markets will have to look for the Durable Goods data and put more pressure on the U.S markets.
The focus will shift to the U.S GDP data, which will provide the U.S markets, especially the Dollar index, much-needed influence. The initial jobless claims will be key to the market after the numbers climbed in the previous week, showing the labour market recovery’s uncertainty.
Euro
It’s fairly a busy week ahead for the Euro markets, with the most anticipated European Council meeting on Thursday and Friday expected to influence the Euro markets movement. The meeting comes in the wake of Europe’s reopening of the economy in most parts of the Eurozone, and the markets will wait to hear any tone concerning the state of the Eurozone economy.
On Thursday, traders will brace themselves for the manufacturing PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone Markit PMI data, impacting the Euro markets movement. At the same time, traders will be closely following developments of the European Council meeting.
British pound
It’s a relatively busy week ahead for the Pounds investors as the economic events will aim to set the tone of the market movement and influence the market movement.
The markets will focus on the Claimant count data on Tuesday, followed by the ILO unemployment rate figures. After the key economic data, traders will focus on the BoE Governor’s speech, which could influence the Pounds movement. The BoE speech comes after the Fed signalled the positive outlook for the U.S economy.
On Wednesday, the markets will look out for the consumer price index and the services PMI data for fundamental movement in the pound’s movement.
The focus will be on the BoE governor’s, which will be the last speech from the Central Bank, and the pound traders will watch the news closely.
Yen
The Yen traders will focus on the monetary policy minutes for the week ahead.
Other markets
- The U.S investors will continue to assess the Tax hike that could threaten the U.S heavy tech stocks’ rally as Joe Biden’s administration move forward to apply the agenda.
- The rally in the Bond yields will be monitored closely in the week ahead as the market continues to rally above 1.60%, putting pressure on the U.S tech-heavy stocks.
- Crude oil experienced its worse movement since September 2020, as demand worries affect the market. However, Oil affected demand will not last as the coronavirus vaccine, and relief aids could lift the price movement.
Technical outlook
Crude Oil
The Crude oil market got hammered on Thursday’s trading session, with the market losing more than 2% to touch the demand level at $58.
Should the market fail to breach the demand level, the Oil price could rally up above the 60% level.
S&P 500
The index has enjoyed a recent rally in the markets as the Bonds yields take a knock from its rally that has affected the U.S stocks movement.
The index rally will continue to be affected by the Yields movement, which threatens the bullish outlook of the market.
The market trades within an upside channel.
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