The week ahead 01 – 05 March 2021

KEY POINTS

• It’s a busy week ahead as the global markets set to start a new month
• Interest rate, GDP growth, retail sales, and Non-farm payroll up in the calendar
• The markets outlook for March
• Fed speech will surely influence the market this week
• The global vaccination progress and political headlines will continue to influence the market

MARCH OUTLOOK;

The markets are set to start the month of March on a busy mode with the economic calendar filled with events that could influence market volatility. After a rocky trading month of February with Global stocks marketing strong sell-off in the last week of the end to finish the month on the red sea.

In March, there will be several focal points for the investors in the markets. Despite the vaccination progress, the focus will be on Capitol Hill where lawmakers are expected to deliver updates on the progress of the $1.9 Trillion stimulus.

The investors will then shift their focus in March to the Fed mid-month meeting and Fed is expected to give more clarity on the FED goals and inflation concerns. A bunch of companies will be on focus in the new months that includes Zoom Video, FedEx, Broadcom, and Target.

On the economic side, the focus will be on employment data. The labor markets data have been unstable in the previous weeks and the weather condition in the U.S could have been halt; March data will provide further details.

The decline in the number of new cases in the U.S could have a positive impact on the economic data for the U.S which includes employment, manufacturing, and retail sales data.

WEEK AHEAD;

U.S Dollar

It’s a busy week ahead in the U.S markets after a rocky trading month of February with the U.S dollar and U.S stocks market-making zigzag movement. The week ahead will focus on economic events with Fed set to give a speech and U.S payroll numbers which could provide volatile influence in the markets.

On Monday, the markets will focus on the U.S ISM manufacturing PMI data to provide some volatility. The Dollar index will hope for better reading in the data.

The market will shift to the ADP employment change on Wednesday. We expect the data to show an improvement as businesses and a decline in the number of cases allow the economy to reopen. Later the focus will be on the ISM services index.

On Thursday, the markets will have a very busy trading session with a focus on the weekly jobless claims report, and late on Fed Chair Powell will give a speech. The speech will provide influence to the markets and we expect to hear updates on bond tapering.

Friday is a big day for the U.S markets will be busy with the NFP data expected to have solid volatility in the markets. We expect a stronger reading from the NFP that could strengthen the U.S dollar movement and weaken the Gold.

Euro;

It’s fairly a busy week ahead for the Euro markets with the economic calendar having events from Germany, Eurozone, and the European Union summit over the weekend.

The markets on Monday will be moved by the headlines from the Euro Union summit which will take place over the weekend. Leaders are set to discuss the certificate of vaccine and the economic impact of European countries. The markets will shift the focus to Germany’s Harmonized index of consumer price.

ECB president Lagarde set to speak on Monday later and the tone of the address could have an influence on the markets.

On Tuesday, the markets will have a very busy day with retail data expected from Germany and later the consumer price index for the Euro area will provide influence to the market.

The Euro markets will shift the focus to Euro retail sales data which could EUR currency with influence.

Pounds;

It’s relatively a quiet week ahead for the Pounds with no economic events expected to impact the market movement.

The focus will be on the Eurozone data and the vaccination progress in the U.K ahead of expected economic reopening.

A bullish movement is set to continue in the week ahead for the Pounds against the basket of currencies. Despite not having key events the market will get influence by political headlines.

Aussie Dollar;

The markets are busy this week in Australia with the focus on the economic calendar and interest rates decision set to influence the bullish Australian dollar.

On Tuesday, the markets will focus on the interest rates decision by the RBA and the rate statement by the RBA will have an influence on the market movement. We expect rates to be kept unchanged with a focus on the rates statement. The focus will then shift to the GDP data on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the focus will be on the retail sales data and we expect to see a slight jump in the numbers. This could have a positive influence on the AUDUSD bullish movement.

Despite economic events, the AUD will continue to price in on the commodity price movement.

Loonie

It’s fairly a quiet week ahead for the Canadian dollar with the economic calendar also quiet for most of the week.

Traders will focus on GDP data expected on Tuesday for influence.

The economic calendar is fairly quiet for the CAD.

Geo-Politics;

• The investors will continue to monitor the U.S stimulus relief headlines as we head into a new month. The Fed has already given much need signal stating that the “economy is still far for the country”. The capitol hill headlines will draw attention.
• The Euro leaders are set to meet this weekend to discuss the economic pandemic and vaccination progress in Europe. The virtual meeting will have an impact on the markets throughout the coming week.
• GameStop will also draw market interest after soaring mostly in February. The markets will monitor the movement in the week to come as Reddit is set to repeat its behavior.