Week Ahead 15/03 – 19/03: US Retail Sales & the Fed

Key points

• It’s relatively a busy week ahead in the markets with the Fed, US retail sales data, unemployment data, GDP reports, and Central Bank speakers in focus
• The markets will have much to focus on, but the Fed will be the key interest
• The outlook of other key markets

US dollar

It’s a busy week ahead for the U.S markets with Fed, US retail sales, and weekly jobless claims expected to influence the market movement.

Traders will have to wait until Tuesday for the US retail sales data, which will provide an accurate picture of how people were spending in February and the economy’s health. A stronger than expected data will show that the U.S economy is on a strong road to recovery.

On Wednesday, traders and investors will focus on the Fed interest rate decision and a conference thereafter. The market will wait for the comments from the Fed for volatility. We expect to hear remarks on the concern of inflation that has kept the Bonds yield rallying high.

The focus will then shift to initial weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Recent data shows that figures fell to four months low as economic activities start to pick up. Another drop will be expected in the markets after Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion was approval by the house representatives.

Euro

It’s fairly a quiet week ahead for the Euro markets with no Central Bank speakers expected.

The focus will be on the Eurogroup meeting on Monday to start the day. Any headlines coming out from the meeting will have the potential to cause slight volatility in the markets.

British pound

It’s a busy week ahead for the Pound, with Central Bank speakers and speeches expected to cause massive market volatility. This will extend to the London markets as interest rate decisions and BoE remarks weigh on the Pound bullish movement.

Traders will have to wait until Wednesday for a very busy day in the market. The interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and the BoE speakers will influence the market movement. Any remarks on the state of the U.K economy will be critical amid the global bond selloff.

Aussie dollar

It’s relatively a busy week ahead for the Aussie, with the RBA meeting, RBA speech, unemployment data, and retail sales will be the key interest for the Australian markets.

Sunday before the global markets open, the RBA governor gives a speech that could affect the Australian market opening. The investors will have the opportunity to react to Lowe’s speech before the opening.

The focus will then shift to the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday. Any remarks from the minutes can influence the market movement and could have an impact on the Aussie movement.

On Thursday, the Aussie traders’ key interest will be on the unemployment data, which will provide an outlook of the Australian labor market. We expect the unemployment data to rise slightly following the federal government announcement to end financial support for firms and workers hit most by the pandemic.

The retail sales data on Friday will be the last key event that could influence the market movement. The Aussie will wait for positivity to finish higher.

Canadian dollar

It’s fairly busy for the Loonie in the week ahead, with retail sales data expected to provide a picture of Canada’s economic status.

Traders will have to wait until Wednesday for the Consumer Price Index to track down the country’s prices of goods and services. Should the CPI data come out higher than expected, this will weigh on the Central bank decision?

New Zealand dollar

It’s relatively quiet in the week ahead for New Zealand, and traders will only focus on the GDP data for volatility in the markets.

Traders will have to wait until Thursday for the GDP figures to show the state of New Zealand’s wealth. We expect the figures to show a strong value in the New Zealand dollar.

Other markets

• The U.S futures will look to bounce back in the week ahead after a recent selloff as the Bonds yield climbed up. The Fed meeting will weigh on the Stocks movement should Fed make comments on the concerns of inflation
• The Oil market had a wild trading week, with the price falling from $67 down to $63 per barrel. Despite a selloff, the Oil outlook is still in a bullish mode
• The bond market will continue to be a key interest in the markets, and we expect the Yield to weigh on the U.S dollar movement. Fed meetings could have an influence on the price movement.